Monday, July 25, 2011

Forex - Dollar broadly lower, weighed by U.S. default fears

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The U.S. dollar remained broadly lower against its major counterparts on Monday, as a lack of progress in talks aimed at raising the U.S. debt ceiling added to fears over a possible default, boosting safe haven demand.

During early U.S. trade, the greenback was fractionally higher against the euro, with EUR/USD dipping 0.03% to hit 1.4354.

Earlier Monday, ratings agency Moody's cut Greece’s sovereign debt rating by three notches to Ca, just one notch above default, after euro zone leaders last week agreed to another EUR109 billion in aid for the indebted nation, combined with EUR37 billion from the private sector.

The greenback was slightly higher against the pound, with GBP/USD slipping 0.13% to hit 1.6277.

Industry data released earlier showed that mortgage approvals in the U.K. rose slightly more-than-expected in June, as consumers pushed back expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of England.

Elsewhere, the greenback was down against the yen and the Swiss franc, with USD/JPY shedding 0.19% to hit 78.39 and USD/CHF tumbling 1.54% to hit 0.8070.

In Japan, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said earlier that recent currency moves were one-sided and that he was closely watching market developments.
  
In addition, the greenback was lower against its Canadian and New Zealand counterparts but dipped against its Australian cousin, with USD/CAD shedding 0.24% to hit 0.9455, NZD/USD inching up 0.02% to hit 0.8647 and AUD/USD sliding 0.12% to hit 1.0844.

New Zealand’s dollar remained supported close to its post-float high by expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.11%.

Fears over a possible U.S. default or sovereign downgrade escalated after talks between President Barack Obama and congressional leaders, aimed at raising the country’s USD14.3 trillion debt ceiling, broke down over the weekend.

Both Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s have placed their credit ratings on U.S. debt on review for a potential downgrade.

Source : forexpros.com
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Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

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EURO


The European currency saw the tendency to move towards the downside hitting the key support at 1.4100, then it managed an upside move until the levels of 1.4130s. Nevertheless, the upside potential is still possible and the Euro just consolidated at the top to gather some strength to move in a bullish trend again.

The trading range for today might be between the key resistance level at 1.4220 and the key support level at 1.4060.

The general trend is up as far as 1. 3270 remains intact targets now at 1.4050 and 1.4220.

Support: 1.4100, 1.4078, 1.4044, 1.4000, 1.3985
Resistance: 1.4140, 1.4162, 1.4187, 1.4200, 1.4217

Recommendation: We expect buying Euro above 1.4110 with a target at 1.4180 stop loss below 1.4075.


GBP


The British pound consolidated at the critical level of 2.0150s. Meanwhile, the pound is still has the upside potential as long as it stays above the major level at 2.0070s.

The trading range for today might be between the key resistance level at 2.0260 and the key support level at 2.0040.

The general trend is up as far as 1.9700 remains intact targets now at 2.0635 and 2.0740.

Support: 2.0100, 2.0080, 2.0048, 2.0025, 2.0000
Resistance: 2.0125, 2.0155, 2.0180, 2.0200, 2.0230

Recommendation: We expect buying sterling above 2.0120 with a target at 2.0220 stop loss below 2.0070


JPY


The dollar against the Japanese yen yesterday moved in a bullish pattern ignoring the strength of the major resistance level at 115.15, so it managed to drive through the upside channel to hit the upper resistance level at 115.70s. The pair today is expected to progress towards the upside as long as it has high levels of volume.

The trading range for today will be between the key resistance at 116.70 and the key support at 114.00.

The general trend is down as far as 124.60 remains intact, targets at 112.40 and 111.20.

Support: 115.05, 114.87, 114.67, 114.48, 114.26
Resistance: 115.25, 115.55, 115.78, 116.00, 116.20

Recommendation: We expect selling USD/JPY below 116.20 with a target at 115.50, stop loss above 116.65


CHF


The dollar against the SWISS Frank yesterday fluctuated in a bullish pattern showing the tendency towards the upside since it couldn't progress towards the downside due to the strong support level at 1.1650s creating a bullish wave until the levels of 1.1790s. Hence, we expect the pair to progress towards the upside today.

The trading range for today will be between the key resistances at 1.1800 the key support at 1.1600.

The general trend is down as far as 1.2540 remains intact, targets at 1.1665and 1.1445.

Support: 1.1677, 1.1650, 1.1626, 1.1605, 1.1580
Resistance: 1.1709, 1.1720, 1.1738, 1.1756, 1.1780


CAD


The dollar against the Canadian Dollar remained so quiet as it traded in very narrow ranges. Thereby, it formed a rounding bottom since it couldn't pass the major support level at 0.9930s.

The trading range for today will be between the key resistance at 1.0150 and the key support at 1.0000.

The general trend is down as far as 1.0850 remains intact, targets will be at 1.0000 and 0.9700.

Support: 1.0045, 1.0025, 0.9985, 0.9950, 0.9930
Resistance: 1.0065, 1.0080, 1.0100, 1.0123, 1.0150

source :  http://forex-news-today.blogspot.com/
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Source : http://w.moreover.com/
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Swiss Franc Soars on Greece Downgrade, Uncertainty Over U.S. Debt Deal

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The Swiss Franc found robust strength in the Asian and European sessions as investors sought safe haven amid the Moody’s downgrade of Greece as well as developing concerns that U.S. government might default on its debt. The Franc moved back towards its record high against the Euro, with the pair falling as low as 1.1530 in pre-North American trade. The all-time low was set last Monday, at 1.1369.
Moody’s Investors Service noted in a report released at approximately 5:00 GMT that the support package for Greece announced last week’s summit “benefits all euro area sovereigns by containing the contagion risk that would likely have followed a disorderly payment default on existing Greek debt.” The report also noted that “the credit implications of the announcement for creditors of individual countries depend on the balance of the positive market-stabilising elements of the plan and the negative precedent set by the endorsement of distressed exchanges between Greek creditors and the sovereign.”
Euro-Franc 5-minute Chart: July 25, 2011
Swiss_Franc_Soars_on_Greece_Downgrade_Uncertainty_Over_U.S._Debt_Deal_body_Picture_1.png, Swiss Franc Soars on Greece Downgrade, Uncertainty Over U.S. Debt Deal
Charts created using Strategy Trader– Prepared by Christopher Vecchio
In a further dissection, Moody’s made the following notations about the downgrade, which are particularly relevant given the health of the global financial system:
  • The support package incorporates the participation of private sector holders of Greek debt, who are now virtually certain to incur credit losses. If and when the debt exchanges occur, Moody's would define this as a default by the Greek government on its public debt.
  • Accordingly, Moody's has today downgraded Greece's debt ratings from Caa1 to Ca to reflect the expected loss implied by the proposed debt exchanges. Once the distressed exchange has been completed, Moody's will reassess Greece's rating to ensure that it reflects the risk associated with the country's new credit profile, including the potential for further debt restructurings. While the rating agency believes that the overall package carries a number of benefits for Greece -- a slightly reduced debt trajectory, lower debt-servicing costs, as well as reduced reliance on financial markets for years to come -- the impact on Greece's debt burden is limited.
In terms of performance against the other major currencies, the Swiss Franc also found particular strength against the U.S. Dollar and the commodity currencies, as market participants, as they continue to digest the Euro-zone bailout package for Greece, are finding it difficult to muster the courage for risk-appetite. As U.S. lawmakers bicker over the finer details of a plan that would raise the debt ceiling, cut spending and raise revenues (or anything combination of the three), it’s becoming obvious that the markets will become increasingly jittery in the days ahead before a debt deal is struck. As such, the Franc, as well as other safe havens, such as Gold, which rose to an all-time high of 1624.30 in the overnight, is likely to find additional support in Dollar terms so long as uncertainty remains ahead of August 2.
On the day thus far, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index has traded in a choppy, approximate 30 point range, as high as 9476.10 and as low as 9444.46. The index was particularly weak last week, as concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling weighed on the U.S. Dollar. As long as concerns linger, the index will likely face continued downside pressure.
Swiss_Franc_Soars_on_Greece_Downgrade_Uncertainty_Over_U.S._Debt_Deal_body_Picture_4.png, Swiss Franc Soars on Greece Downgrade, Uncertainty Over U.S. Debt DealSwiss_Franc_Soars_on_Greece_Downgrade_Uncertainty_Over_U.S._Debt_Deal_body_Picture_5.png, Swiss Franc Soars on Greece Downgrade, Uncertainty Over U.S. Debt Deal
Swiss_Franc_Soars_on_Greece_Downgrade_Uncertainty_Over_U.S._Debt_Deal_body_Picture_6.png, Swiss Franc Soars on Greece Downgrade, Uncertainty Over U.S. Debt Deal
Fundamental Headlines
Last Minute ‘Gang of Six’ Plan Derails Boehner Debt-Limit Deal with Obama – Bloomberg
U.S. Stock Futures Down on Lack of Debt Deal – Bloomberg
Debt-Talk Drama Puts Market on the Defensive – CNBC
Money Market Funds Cut Euro Bank Exposure – Financial Times
Moody’s Warns Greek Default Almost Certain – Reuters
EURUSD: The EUR/USD pair, unlike the EUR/CHF pair, was relatively unchanged, down 0.06 percent at the time this report was written (the EUR/CHF pair depreciated 1.93 percent in the overnight). The pair could face significant downside pressure once the U.S. debt crisis is resolved, as confidence in the world’s reserve currency is renewed. For now, as contagion is contained in Europe, the Euro could find some support in the near-term, although the recent bailout package appears to be an expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), making it a mirror image of the United States’ Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), which could ultimately result in a depreciation of the currency bloc.
Taking a look at price action, the pair broke through its key pivot today, at 1.4369, and although the daily chart suggests a sideways trade in the near-term, shorter-term timeframes suggest that the pair may have, in fact, topped in the near-term. On the 8-hour chart, the RSI has fallen to 58, from 68 on Thursday. Similarly, the MACD Histogram appears to have peaked in its bullish divergence, with the differential narrowing to +18 from +39 on Friday. The Slow Stochastic oscillator has issued a sell signal, however, with the %K less than the %D, at 82 and 83, respectively. Should the pair break below 1.4330, the path looks clear to at least 1.4150.

source : http://www.dailyfx.com/ 
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Saturday, July 23, 2011

Euro Posts Weekly Gain After Two Weeks of Losses

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EuroThis week was “a mixed blessing” for the euro. For the most part, the currency showed a good performance as worries about the debt crisis subsided, but by the end of the week concerns returned.
The summit of the European Union leaders caused optimism among Forex traders, who anticipated some cohesive plan for dealing with the sovereign-debt crisis. The summit ended, a plan was presented, but traders didn’t look very happy about the outcome. Surely, some market participants were pleased by the plan of the EU leaders, but most investors aren’t sure that suggested measures would help to deal with the problems in the longer run, not to mentions concerns about expected Greek default.

The shared 17-nation European currency also get boost from the US, where politicians aren’t able to reach agreement about measures to battle the US debt crisis, making the dollar less appealing than the euro. But the decline of the euro against some currencies on Friday made traders feel uncertain about the euro. Was that drop just a minor correction or a first step in a long way down? It’s hard to tell as currently the euro, along with the dollar, is one of the worst currencies to trade because of its unpredictability.
EUR/USD jumped from 1.4109 to 1.4356 and EUR/JPY advanced from 111.58 to 112.75 over this week. EUR/CHF, unlike the previous two currency pairs, hasn’t declined on Friday, rose from 1.415 to 1.768 during this week and posted a weekly high of 1.1891.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Euro, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

source : topforexnews.com
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Euro Drops as Optimism Caused by EU Summit Wanes

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EuroThe euro declined today on concerns that measures planned by the European leaders on the summit yesterday wouldn’t be enough to contain the sovereign-debt crisis.
The European lawmakers agreed to provide additional aid for Greece, expand the Eurozone bailout fund and allow to use it for purchasing bonds of indebted nations. Forex traders are worried, though, that such measures won’t be enough to deal with the crisis in the long run.
The EU leaders said in the statement:
Since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis, important measures have been taken to stabilize the euro area, reform the rules and develop new stabilization tools. The recovery in the euro area is well on track and the euro is based on sound economic fundamentals. But the challenges at hand have shown the need for more far reaching measures.
Fitch Ratings commented today on the outcome of the summit:
The commitments agreed by euro area Heads of State represent an important and positive step towards securing financial stability in the euro zone. Fitch considers the nature of private sector involvement in a new financial programme of support for Greece to constitute a Restricted Default event. However, the reduction in interest rates and extension of maturities potentially offers Greece a window of opportunity to regain solvency, despite the formidable challenges that it faces.
EUR/USD dropped from 1.4423 to 1.4364 as of 19:25 GMT today after it reached the intraday low of 1.4323. EUR/JPY fell from 112.94 to 112.69.
If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Euro, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

source : topforexnews.com
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Police arrest 3rd teen in heist of euro stash

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STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. -- A third teen has been arrested and accused of breaking into an Annadale acquaintance's home and stealing euros and U.S. cash.

Francisco Berardi, 17, of Galloway Avenue, Port Richmond Center, was arrested Tuesday in connection with the July 6 heist.

According to court papers, Berardi and alleged accomplices Michael McQuillen and Raymond Burt drove to the residence shortly after 1 p.m. Berardi remained in the car as a lookout while his pals entered and snatched $1,065 in European Union currency and $6,000 in greenbacks, said court documents.

Two hours later, Burt and McQuillen exchanged the euros for cash at a Port Richmond bank, allege prosecutors. Those two suspects were previously arrested.

All three defendants are charged felony counts of second-degree burglary, third-degree grand larceny and third-degree stolen-property possession, said a spokesman for District Attorney Daniel Donovan. Berardi is also accused of fourth-degree stolen-property possession.
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Forex: NZD/USD ends week with a gain of 200 pips

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – The Kiwi was among the best performer in the currency market and confirmed its strong momentum. NZD/USD reached a new all time high on Friday at 0.8670 and retreated afterwards to finish the week around 0.8640. The pair posted the fourth weekly gains in a row and has risen 650 pips since June 27.

The appreciation of the Kiwi across the board and outperforming other high yield currencies, has been supported by macroeconomic data.

NZD/CAD rose above 0.8200 for the first time since March 2008 while AUD/NZD posted the lowest weekly close since August 2010. EUR/NZD reached on Tuesday at 1.6495 the lowest price since 2005.

source: www.fxstreet.com
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Forex Flash: EUR/USD looks set to recover lost ground – Commerzbank

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(Córdoba) - Greek insolvency has been averted for now, sparking relief in the FX markets, so the euro looks set to recover lost ground in the week ahead, according to the Commerzbank analyst team.

"With only a few days left to reach a breakthrough in the US debt limit stalemate, however, it is still too early to sound the all-clear, as a failure by Congress to hike the debt ceiling would result in default on the other side of the Atlantic", said the Commerzbank team. "Against this backdrop, the focus of the FX markets should shift towards the US dollar in the coming days, which will benefit the euro".

The Commerzbank team expects EUR/USD will trade higher in the week ahead. "The only risk to the euro's recovery could be particularly weak US data and a renewed sparking of recession fears – with regard to the USA in particular but also for the world as a whole. Ironically, the subsequent increase in global risk aversion and the resulting flight into safe-haven investments would then send the dollar higher", they added.
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EU Does Their Part!

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 Yesterday’s market reaction to the news out of the EU could not have been a more perfect scenario for those searching for a ray of hope that the global economy might actually be able to move forward. News out of Brussels was that indeed a solution to the Euro debt crisis had been agreed upon, going a lot further than most had thought possible.

While the markets are still trying to judge the merits of the resolution, the EU took some bold steps to try to stem the crisis. Some of the highlights: Greece gets a larger bailout—but needs to enact major austerity to receive it; Greece gets AAA-rated terms for borrowing from the ECB and EFSF, as does Portugal and Ireland if needed; the ECB will buy bonds and essentially be a “bidder of last resort”, all but daring speculators to try to drive yields higher on Spain, Italy, or others (think ‘don’t fight the Fed’). These are extraordinary measures that will give the debt-burdened countries a chance at redemption. However, the question remains as to whether or not the austerity required is too draconian, and the likelihood that it can be accomplished. One other thing to note however is that the EFSF was not expanded so the size of the emergency facility remains at 440 billion euros, which hopefully is enough to manage future liquidity issues.

While this serves the markets purposes for now, it appears likely that the EU economy is going to shrink in size as austerity is enacted throughout the region. One early sign is that German IFO confidence figures have come in lower than expected, though Euro zone industrial orders picked up for the month.

The rally that took place yesterday has followed through to this morning, with stocks in Asia and Europe up overnight, as are commodities. Next up is the US debt ceiling debate, and the politics surrounding it has gotten so nasty that it’s almost become comical. A deal will definitely get done and the only question is at whose expense.

In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is mostly higher, easily clearing the resistance identified yesterday at 1.08 vs. USD. Export and import prices have risen, which could give rise to inflation down under.

Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is has rocketed higher to 86.75, just south of my target of .87 from earlier this weak. Inflation expectations are rising, which means that so are interest rate hike expectations as well.

Loonie (CAD): The only other fundamental data out his morning has come from Canada, which reported lower than expected CPI data that has sent the Loonie lower, despite oil trading up to $100. Core CPI came in at 1.3% vs. an expectation of 1.9%, and the headline figure came in at 3.1% vs. an expected 3.6%. This may buy the BOC time to allow the economy to continue with lower rates as prices seemingly are under control. Better than expected retail sales figures showed a gain of .5% vs. an expected .3%, which shows economic improvement. (Click chart to enlarge)


Euro (EUR): The Euro has pulled back some to under 1.44 vs. USD as markets are set to open slightly lower here in the US. While the market seemed pleased with the initial resolution form yesterday, as more is learned about the deal, the less enamored the markets may become. (Click chart to enlarge)


Pound (GBP): The Pound is also pulling back after yesterday’s rally and with no news on the docket may be a victim of having traveled too far, too fast.

Swissie (CHF): The SNB has been thankful of late that risk is abating in the global economy as the franc becomes less desirable when safe-havens are out of favor.

Dollar (USD): I’ve read some analyses that claim that yesterday’s massive moves were more a function of Dollar weakness than Euro strength. The markets are looking for any indication that the global economy is stabilizing, as the appetite for risk is increasing as cheap money floods the globe. We need a compromise on the debt ceiling debate to really instill confidence.

Yen (JPY): The Yen is picking up some strength as risk appetites are turning to risk aversion as the morning moves forward. Nevertheless it was lower yesterday as carry trades were re-established.

As I said yesterday, “buy the rumor, sell the news”. While the Euro debt crisis resolution may be better news than expected, the devil is always in the details. As the markets start the comprehend all that needs to be done, opinions over the deal may change.

While we are seeing a pull-back in the early action here in the US, this could be more of a function of jittery markets still being fearful heading into the weekend. The debt ceiling debate rages on here in the US and should it seem less likely that a deal can be reached, then the markets may react quickly.

So now it is up to the US, and hopefully we can cast the politics aside for the better of all and not just a specific political base.

To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!

source : www.forexnews.com
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Thursday, July 21, 2011

FOREX: Euro Gains May Be Short-Lived as EU Summit Looms Ahead

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A busy economic calendar is unlikely to distract traders from their singular focus on a meeting of European Union leaders in Brussels to iron out an agreement on Greece’s second rescue package. The Euro advanced overnight ahead of the summit after a joint statement from French and German governments said President Nicolas Sarkozy and Chancellor Angela Merkel reached agreement on squashing the debt crisis in the Mediterranean country after 7 hours of bilateral talks. Details of the arrangement will be presented at the summit. Historically, the Franco-German axis has been the focal point of EU policymaking, meaning the apparent existence of an agreeable plan between the EU’s top two countries is likely indicative of a de-facto region-wide consensus.
Importantly, Greece is hardly the most pressing issue for the Euro Zone. Indeed, the drama surrounding that country’s move towards further assistance – complete with a hard-won set of new austerity measures that nearly ended the tenure of Prime Minister George Papandreou – has been an afterthought for some time now amid fears the debt crisis will spread to countries too big to be bailed out. With that in mind, the most important takeaway from today’s summit will be the scalability of the Greek arrangement for other ailing periphery countries, most critically Spain and Italy. A one-off plan that addresses none of the vulnerabilities elsewhere in the region is likely to be met with disappointment by the markets, putting downward pressure on the single currency.
On the data front, the preliminary set of July’s Euro Zone PMI figures is set to show continued slowdown in manufacturing- and service-sector growth, which ought to reinforce expectations of a pause in ECB interest rate hikes for the time being. While the results are unlikely to produce significant fireworks with traders unwilling to commit directionally until the EU summit outcome is known, disappointing results could have somewhat of a delayed reaction in amplify the selloff if Euroland’s leaders fall short. UK Retail Sales figures round out the docket, with apparent scope for disappointment despite modest expectations for a flat year-on-year result after an analogous report from the British Retail Consortium revealed a 0.6 drop over the same period in a report published last week.
 
The Swiss Franc underperformed in Asian hours, mirroring the rally in the Euro as traders unwound bets linked to sovereign stress in the single currency area. The Australian Dollar slumped under the weight of disappointing economic data after a preliminary Chinese Manufacturing PMI reading from HSBC showed the factory sector shrank for the first time since February 2009, threatening the leading source of demand for Australian raw-materials exporters. A drop in Business Confidence and a selloff across Asian stock exchanges compounded selling pressure on the sentiment-sensitive currency

source : http://www.dailyfx.com 
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Forex - GBP/USD higher ahead of U.K. retail sales data

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News Forex Online – The pound was higher against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, trading close to a four-week high ahead of the release of U.K. government data on retail sales.

GBP/USD hit 1.6200 during early European trade, the pair’s highest since June 22; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6172, gaining 0.13%.

Cable was likely to find support at 1.6039, Tuesday’s low and resistance at 1.6262, the high of June 22.

The pound strengthened against the greenback on Wednesday, after the minutes of the Bank of England’s July policy setting meeting were slightly less dovish than expected.

In contrast to the June meeting, there was no mention of further monetary easing. The minutes of the central bank’s June meeting showed that some policymakers believed additional monetary stimulus would be necessary as the outlook for growth weakened.

The BoE kept interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.5% in July, in a widely expected decision.

Meanwhile, the pound edged lower against the euro, with EUR/GBP easing up 0.06% to hit 0.8807.

Later in the day, details of a joint agreement between Germany and France on how to deal with the Greek debt problem were to be presented at a summit in Brussels.

Also Thursday, the U.S. was to release a weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as a report on manufacturing activity.

source : forexpros.com
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Wednesday, July 20, 2011

About

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News Forex Online is here to bring you most important Forex news. Notable events from the international political, economical and business life influence financial markets. Be prepared to know what will affect the Forex market tomorrow.
Only reliable news sources are used to present the vital information, that can be successfully used in news trading and Forex fundamental analysis, letting you enhance your trading style and be current with the global situation.
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Bank of England Minutes Reveal Few Surprises; Sterling Outlook Murky

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The Bank of England released its minutes from its July meeting this morning which showed that the governing council voted 7-2 to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% as most members of the MPC felt that the recent softening of data meant there was less need for tightening of monetary policy in the short-term. The governing council also voted 8-1 to keep its asset purchase plan at 200 billion pounds.

Expectations have been lowered in recent months for tightening action from the Bank of England as growth hit a ‘soft patch’, the central bank minutes reflected this sentiment saying “it was likely that the current weakness in activity would persist for longer than previously thought” continuing to say that “recent developments had reduced the likelihood that a tightening in policy would be warranted in the near term”. We believe that the central bank will raise rates around the end of the year, most likely in December, while Ernst & Young’s Item Club this morning forecast a November rate hike.

On the inflation front the central bank moved to say that it was now “likely” that CPI will peak above 5% in coming months raising their forecasts yet again and adding that it is likely to peak “sooner than the committee had previously expected”. However, the MPC maintained their outlook that “with the continued subdued behavior of earnings…reinforces the case that inflation was likely to fall back once the temporary impact of the factors pushing up on it had waned”.



The most notable omission was the lack of any real mention of the governing council mulling further measures to support the economy through its ‘soft patch’ by printing more money to expand their asset purchases. Even as the minutes reveal that the MPC expect “some softening” in Q3 UK GDP, at present the governing council seems unwilling to artificially support the economy further.

Bank_of_England_Minutes_Reveal_Few_Surprises_Sterling_Outlook_Murky_body_gbp.png, Bank of England Minutes Reveal Few Surprises; Sterling Outlook Murky

As a result of this omission the pound was moderately better off against the buck as fears waned of imminent further quantitative easing by the central bank. The outlook for the pound is rather murky at present, even as it consolidates its corrective move back above the psychological 1.6000 move. The downside in Gbp/Usd still looks vulnerable and the multi-month low posted last week may well serve as a downside target for Gbp bears. However, balancing the outlook is the fact that the UK is not dealing with a serious crisis like its major peers are; Japan overcoming the earthquake and tsunami, the EMU with its periphery debt crisis and the US with its debt ceiling. As such, investors could elect to buy into the pound considering its relative health against its major trading partners, despite its own soft growth prospects. We find ourselves with a bearish bias for the pound, particularly against the buck and expect the 1.6000 level to be broken again soon opening the door to the next leg down in Gbp/Usd.

Written by Jonathan Granby, DailyFX Research Team

source : Dailyfx.com
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